Friday, August 28, 2009

Near North can't count?

This story from North Bay threw me for a loop the first time I read through it. The headline suggests one thing, but as you spend more time with the story, you have to wonder how the board and school messed up their enrolment projections by such a large margin.
(Principal Lucio Pavone) said families have moved North from southern Ontario, and other families have been transferred and stationed at Canadian Forces Base North Bay.
Jordan Hitchon and his older brother Josh are part of that trend.
The teens moved to North Bay with their family three weeks ago from Nova Scotia. Their parents are stationed at CFB North Bay.
There is always a certain amount of flux in enrolments over the summer-- but this seems a bit wide. The Grade 9 count was off by 40 students, which is equivalent to almost another two sections/classes per semester. The Grade 12 numbers -- off by 47 -- aren't as drastic a miscalculation due to fifth-year students and the reality that not all Grade 12 students take a full course load, whereas Grade 9 and 10 students usually do.
The bigger concern here is how the board's projections were off by such large numbers. Board demographers usually pride themselves on developing enrolment projections that are as close as possible to reality. Principals are usually involved in projections as well and I would suggest perhaps this one should have had his ear closer to the ground.


Anonymous said...

Easy answer ER - new math and that old favorite Fun With Numbers.

Seriously though you have to wonder about how effective decisions can be made if the nos. were that off, and could they be off again?